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you are right about the breakage. i had mip shafts in my axial and the pin slipped down just like yours was. it slipped under a load and my tranny output went POP.
I can't tell from the pic, but I don't think the reason your output popped is because of the pin slipping, I had the same thing happen to me using the same drive lines and it is just because the stock Axial outputs suck, if you notice there is very little metal holding it together there, and after a while it just gets week and snaps, it is a very common thing with the Axial outputs. :\
tell that to the bent cross-shaft in the mip cvd.
it slipped, got wedged and locked up the front axle under a load. Granted it was a weak goat setup in there but it was enough to snap the output.
I would like to point out then when I got my second Axial ARTR and ran it stock, I popped one of the drive shafts within 5 minutes. I also saw it happen 4 times at the last comp I attended. You either need to get the Axial reinforcing rings, or C-Splines to make sure it doesn't happen.
When your iron is pushing 900 degrees, it really burns to poke yourself in the finger with the tip. The good thing is that the wound is instantly cauterized. Ahhhhh....the smell of burnt flesh in the morning. LMAO